Predictions of earthquakes registering over M5, Seismic Intensity 4: Until Nov.7, 2017

Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
Delivery Date:Oct. 30, 2017
Predictions of earthquakes registering over M5, Seismic Intensity 4: Until Nov 7, 2017
We will publish some parts.



Judging from the present “crustal movements, water level observations, and earthquake occurrence situations”, Max SI6 or more earthquake will not occur.




This week’s crustal movement: Kanto, Chubu

M5: Izu Peninsula – Around Hachijojima (Max SI1-4, around 2 weeks)
  1. Large crustal movements facing the Suruga Trough were observed in Miyakejima and Mikurajima.
    It is rare for crustal movements facing the same direction to be observed in multiple points.
    In the last 20 years, 2 earthquakes “over M5” have occurred after similar crustal movement directions and large values were observed.
    ■Oct.21, 2008 Hachijojima coastal waters “M5.1, SI1”
    ■July 28, 2013 Torishima coastal waters “M5.4, SI1”
    Therefore, the possibility of a similar scale earthquake to occur “within 2 weeks” in Izu Peninsula – around Hachijojima area is presumed high.
  2. Micro earthquakes in Northern Ibaraki continued to occur last week (last week 279).
    The possibility of a M5 class to occur from Northern Ibaraki area – Southern Fukushima remains.

Please contact us for more information.

【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center(Representative director:Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita)
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo, ZIP 105-0022
TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132