Predictions of earthquakes registering over M5, Seismic Intensity 4: Until Aug.1, 2017

Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
Delivery Date:July. 24, 2017
Predictions of earthquakes registering over M5, Seismic Intensity 4: Until Aug 1, 2017
We will publish some parts.

Latest Earthquake Activity

20170724_02
  1. The number of last week’s M4.5 or more earthquakes were extremely large compared to the normal state.
    →15 around Japan (6 two weeks ago)
  2. Earthquakes with shallow hypocenters frequently occurred especially around the “Pacific Plate” boundary.
    →Over 1,000 earthquakes in Offshore Kushiro ? Offshore Fukushima area.
  3. Frequent “deep-focus earthquakes” in Offshore Aichi.
    →Caution still needed from Tokai Region ? Kii Peninsula.
  4. Active earthquake activity around Hachijojima.
    →Frequent shallow-focus earthquakes along the Izu Ogasawara Trench.

Latest Crustal Movement

20170724_03
  1. Large crustal movements in 3 directions seen in Hokkaido.
    →Northern Hokkaido: Crustal movements in Sea of Japan direction.
    →Western Hokkaido: Crustal movements in Sakhalin direction
    →Southern Hokkaido – Shimokita Peninsula: Crustal movements towards Offshore Ukarakwa.
  2. Crustal movements towards the Japan Trench (Pacific Plate boundary) continue from Iwate to Miyagi.
  3. Large crustal movements around Kii Peninsula continue again this week.

This week’s crustal movement: Kanto/Chubu

20170724_10 ■M6: Tokai Trough area (Max SI5) *Ongoing Caution state in Ibaraki (Max SI4)
■M5: Around Niigata & Nagano (Max SI3) ■M4: Around Gifu (SI3)

Deep-focus M4.5 occurred on July 18 in Offshore Shizuoka. Since then, M3 class deep-focus earthquakes have occurred concentrated in “Offshore Aichi and Offshore Mie”.
→2 weeks before the ”08/11/2009 05:07 (JST), Suruga Bay, depth 23km, M6.5, SI6 lower” quake, frequent “M2-3 class deep-focus earthquakes” occurred in “Suruga Bay – Enshunada” area. From this, if the number of deep-focus earthquakes becomes larger than the present state, a M6 class earthquake is predicted around the Tokai Trough. Please be prepared.
*The plate boundary has dislocated in 100-150 year time spans around the Tokai Trough in the past, repeatedly causing major M8 class earthquakes. However, it has not yet dislocated in the last 160 years, and the JMA’s strain observations has also revealed the rising of the strain energy. Please stay alert.


【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center(Representative director:Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita)
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo, ZIP 105-0022
TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132