Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
Delivery Date:June. 26, 2017
Predictions of earthquakes registering over M5, Seismic Intensity 4: Until July 4, 2017
We will publish some parts.

Latest Earthquake Activity

  1. Last week, there was no occurrence of a major earthquake registering over M6.
  2. 5 middle scale earthquakes over M5 occurred.
    -Eastern offshore of Hokkaido M5.2, M5.3
    -Southern Nagano M5.7
    -Bungo Suido M5.0
    -Taiwan M5.0
  3. Frequent earthquake occurrences continue in the Pacific side of the Tohoku Region.
  4. M5 class earthquake with a shallow hypocenter occurred in the Izu Ogasawara Trench.

Latest Crustal Movement

  1. Small scale crustal movements concentrated in the Kii Peninsula area.
  2. Large scale crustal movement in Kanoya, Kagoshima.
    →High possibility of this leading to a M6 class earthquake. Stay Alert.

This week’s crustal movement: Hokkaido

20170626_08 ■Large crustal movement was not observed in Hokkaido.
■M5: Eastern offshore of Hokkaido (Max SI2)

  • No possibility of a major earthquake occurrence since large crustal movements were not observed across Hokkaido this week.
  • Earthquakes in eastern offshore of Hokkaido are in the decreasing trend. (2 weeks ago 31 times) → (Latest week 19 times)
  • Earthquake activity around Okushirito (SW offshore of Hokkaido) is beginning to expand its occurrence area, and the numbers are also increasing. (2 weeks ago 16 times) → (Latest week 26 times)

This week’s crustal movement: Tohoku

e20170626_09 ■Earthquake occurrences increasing in Offshore Iwate, Offshore Fukushima.
■M5: Offshore Iwate (Max SI3), Offshore Fukushima (Max SI4)

  • Small scale earthquakes in Offshore Iwate – Offshore Miyagi area are increasing since the occurrence of the June 23, Offshore Iwate M4.5 quake.
  • Small scale earthquakes that were occurring frequently in Offshore Fukushima from June 20 to 23 have begun to decrease after June 24.
  • Since large crustal movements were not observed in the Tohoku Region, the possibility of a major earthquake to occur is low.
  • However, because concentrated micro earthquakes continue to be observed in the Southern Fukushima – Northern Ibaraki area, the possibility of an earthquake over M6 to occur still exists.

This week’s crustal movement: Kanto/Chubu

20170626_10 ■M6: Tonankai Trough area (about 1-3 weeks)
■M5: Tochigi, Ibaraki, Chiba

  • Abnormal data was not observed prior to the “M5.7, Max SI5 upper” quake which occurred in Nagano on June 25.
  • Concentrated small scale crustal movements seen in Eastern Kii Peninsula. Because two weeks after the occurrences of “04/01/2016, SE off Mie, depth 29km, M6.5, Max SI4” and “08/11/2009, Suruga Bay, 23km, M6.5, Max SI6 lower” earthquakes, similar crustal movements towards the Suruga Bay direction were observed, there is “the possibility of a M6 class earthquake” in the Tokai Trough and Tonankai Trough. Please stay alert.
  • Frequent micro earthquake occurrences continue in Southern Fukushima – Northern Ibaraki area, and there is a possibility of a M6 class earthquake after a M5 class earthquake in the same epicentral area. Please stay alert.

Crustal movement prior to the June 25 Southern Nagano Earthquake


About the “Southern Nagano, M5.7” earthquake on June 25, although small scale crustal movements were observed since June 17, 8 days prior to its occurrence, because this was a middle scale earthquake registering M5.7, and also a fault type earthquake which prior crustal movements are not often observed, large crustal movements were not observed beforehand.

This week’s crustal movement: Kinki/Chugoku/Shikoku

e20170626_13 ■M6: Tonankai Trough area (1-3 weeks)
■M5: Kyoto, Nara area

  • We noted in the June 19 report that a “M4-5 class earthquake is predicted in Offshore Wakayama and Hyuganada because frequent micro earthquakes continue to be observed at the present time”. As a result, one day later, “June 20, M5.0, Max SI5 upper” earthquake occurred. In the latest week, because large crustal movements were observed in “Kanoya, Kagoshima”, M4 class is predicted in Hyuganada.
  • In the latest week, crustal movements in two different directions were observed around the Kii Peninsula.
    1. Crustal movements towards the Tonankai Trough direction in “Tsu, Seki, Minamiise” of Mie. → Possible M6 class around Offshore Mie.
    2. Crustal movement of “Shigaraki, Shiga”, “Hakusan, Mie”, “Kobekita & Ooya, Hyogo”, “Hirokawa & Minabe, Wakayama” are centering in a radial pattern towards Kyoto and Nara, located at the center of these points.→Possible M4-5 class fault type earthquake in Kyoto and Nara.

This week’s crustal movement: Kyushu

20170626_14 ■M4: Southern Kyushu – Hyuganada (Max SI3)

  • Last week, since crustal movements different from normal were observed in numerous points of Kyushu, we noted in the June 19 report that [this observation of continuous crustal movements is similar to the situation after the “05/12/2005, Hyuganada, depth30km, M4.5, SI3” quake. In the case of “05/12/2005, M4.5” quake, “05/31/2005, Eastern offshore of Osumi Peninsula, depth29km, M5.8, Max SI4” earthquake occurred 19 days later. From this, a similar earthquake is predicted on “July 5”, 19 days after June 16.] Five days later than predicted, “June 20, M5.0, Max SI5 upper” quake occurred.
  • After the M3.6 quake in the Philippine Sea Plate boundary area of eastern offshore Tanegashima, micro earthquakes are occurring frequently. Stay alert for occurrences more westward in the future.

This week’s crustal movement: Okinawa

20170626_15 ■M5: Taiwan coastal waters (Max SI3), Amami Oshima – Okinawa Main Island waters (Max SI2)

  • As noted in last week’s report, a M5 class occurred in Taiwan, and small scale earthquakes with shallow hypocenters continue to occur frequently.
    →Possibility of similar scale earthquakes again this week because of its shallow hypocenter.
  • Although large crustal movements were not observed in Amami Oshima, micro earthquakes registering under M1 are occurring frequently. The possibility of a M5 class to occur is very high.
  • Small scale crustal movements towards the “Ryukyu Trench” direction observed in “Oogimi & Naha, Okinawa”.
    Also, although earthquakes were occurring at the rate of more than 100 per week 2 months ago around the Ryukyu Trench, this situation has calmed down and there is a possibility that this may lead to a M6 class earthquake. We will keep close watch.

【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center(Representative director:Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita)
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo, ZIP 105-0022
TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132