Predictions of earthquakes registering over M5, Seismic Intensity 4: Until June 27, 2017

Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
Delivery Date:June. 19, 2017
Predictions of earthquakes registering over M5, Seismic Intensity 4: Until June 27, 2017
We will publish some parts.

Latest Earthquake Activity

20170619_02
  1. As mentioned in last week’s report, there was no occurrence of an earthquake registering more than M5 in the Japan coastal waters.
  2. 3 earthquakes registering SI3 (Kochi M4.5), (Hyuganada M4.6), (Fukushima M4.4). Scale of these earthquakes were all small scale M4.5 class. No “abnormal data” linking to a major earthquake observed in these 3 regions.
  3. Earthquakes with shallow hypocenters (blue ○) occurred in Ogasawara through Offshore Toyama area.
  4. M4.5 occurred in Taiwan → Possibility of a stronger earthquake in the future.

Latest Crustal Movement

20170619_03
  1. Concentrated crustal movement seen in Shikoku and Southern Kyushu were likely effected by the “Apr.14, Kochi, M4.6” and “Apr.16, Hyuganada, M4.5” quakes.
  2. The possibility of a major earthquake to occur is low from the crustal movement observed today because “active earthquake activity has not been observed since then” in both regions.
  3. Large crustal movement continues in Iwo Jima. (Effects of the expansion of Nishinoshima)

This week’s crustal movement: Kanto

20170619_10 ■Anomaly observed prior to a major earthquake not observed.
■M5: Tochigi, Ibaraki, Chiba (SI3)

In last week’s report, we noted “M4: Izu Peninsula area (Max SI2)”. Since then, the “June 13, Izu Oshima waters, M3.0” quake occurred, and micro earthquakes continue to occur frequently in the same epicentral area. However, from analyzing the present crustal movement and earthquake occurrence situations, “the possibility of a M6 class to occur this week” is low in Izu Oshima.
Also, about the areas where the possibility of “M5: Chiba ? Ibaraki (Max SI3)” were mentioned in last week’s report, the following four M4 class earthquakes occurred around the “Ibaraki prefectural boundary”: Southern Fukushima M4.4, Tochigi prefectural boundary M3.9, NW Chiba M3.8, Offshore Choshi M4.0.
This week, since large crustal movements were not observed, the possibility of an earthquake registering over “M6, SI4” to occur is low.


【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center(Representative director:Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita)
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo, ZIP 105-0022
TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132