Predictions of earthquakes registering over M5, Seismic Intensity 4: Until June 13, 2017

Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
Delivery Date:June. 5, 2017
Predictions of earthquakes registering over M5, Seismic Intensity 4: Until June 13, 2017
We will publish some parts.

Latest Earthquake Activity

  1. Last week, middle scale crustal movement in “Wakkanai, Hokkaido”.
    →May 31 Southern Sakhalin, M4.5
  2. Frequent occurrence of M4-5 level earthquakes with hypocenter depth at 20-50km in the Izu Ogasawara Trench area.
    -June 2, Eastern offshore of Hachijojima, M4.6
    -June 2, Chichijima waters, M4.9
  3. M4 class in Offshore Chiba.
    →Micro earthquakes occurring more frequently in the Chiba side of Tokyo Bay.
  4. Areas where occurrences of micro earthquakes are concentrated.
    -Offshore Fukushima (274 times)
    -Southern Fukushima ? Northern Ibaraki (300 times)
    -Kumamoto area (215 times)
    -Ryukyu Trench (92 times)
From the above, occurrences of M5 or more earthquakes are predicted in the Pacific side of the Tohoku Region, Tokyo Bay ? Ibaraki area, and the Ryukyu Trench this week.

Latest Crustal Movement

  1. Large scale crustal movement in opposite direction from last week observed in “Wakkanai”.
    →Presumed to be effected by last week’s earthquake in “Southern Sakhalin”. The possibility of a major earthquake is low.
  2. Large crustal movement was observed again this week in “Ioto”
    →Possibility of M6 or more earthquake in Iwo Jima coastal waters.
  3. Small scale crustal movement, but along the Ryukyu Trench, observed in “Kita Daitojima” and “Minami Daitojima”.
    →In the 17 years since 2000, 9 earthquakes registering over M6 have occurred in the Ryukyu Trench. If the boundary surface of the Ryukyu Trench slips, there is a high possibility of a major earthquake over M6 to occur.

This week’s crustal movement: Kyushu

20170605_08 ■Large crustal movements, water level change, frequent occurrences of earthquakes seen prior to a major earthquake were not observed.

We noted in last week’s report that middle scale crustal movement was observed in Wakkanai and if this large crustal movement continue in the following weeks, there may be a M5-6 class earthquake in the “Southern Sakhalin area”. Since then, “May 31, Southern Sakhalin, M4.5” quake occurred.
This week, although large crustal movement over 1.5cm was observed in Wakkanai, this was likely effected by the May 31 quake and will probably not lead to a major earthquake.
The micro earthquake occurrences around Okushirijima continues but because the numbers have decreased to a normal level, the possibility of a major earthquake to occur is low.
Also, since the scale of earthquakes in Eastern offshore of Hokkaido is decreasing, the possibility of a M6 class to occur this week is low.

【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center(Representative director:Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita)
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo, ZIP 105-0022
TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132