Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
【Delivery Date： Feb. 6, 2017 】
Prediction analysis of earthquakes M4 or more to occur by Feb. 14, 2017
【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center（Representative director：Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita）
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo , ZIP105-0022 TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132
Predicted epicenters of earthquakes with a seismic intensity 4 or more by Feb.14[Latest crustal movement]
– Concentrated crustal movements observed in multiple points of Inland Fukushima from Feb.4.
– Frequent M4 class earthquakes in the Pacific side of the Tohoku Region.
[Predicted epicenters of earthquakes with a seismic intensity 4 or more by Feb.14]
■M5: Inland Fukushima (seismic intensity 4)
■M4: Offshore Iwate (seismic intensity 3)
■M5: Ibaraki – Offshore Chiba (seismic intensity 3)
*Details in the following pages.
This week’s crustal movement: Hokkaido■No large crustal movement seen prior to a major earthquake observed.
The “westward” crustal movement seen last week in “Nakagawa” has reversed towards the inlands but because large crustal movements are not observed in the surrounding areas, the possibility of a major earthquake to occur immediately is low.
“Shallow focus M3-4 earthquakes” are occurring more frequently in eastern offshore Hokkaido, and this may possibly lead to a future M6 class. But because it will occur in the far seas, it will unlikely be an earthquake registering a high seismic intensity.
However, since earthquakes like the “Sep.8, 1918, M8.2, tsunami 12m” and “Nov.7, 1958, M8.3, tsunami 5m” have occurred in the past in “offshore Etorofu”, and according to the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, M8 or more earthquakes occur in approximately 72 year cycle in “offshore Etrofu”. 55 years have already passed since the last M8 class on “Oct.13, 1963, M8.2”, and from now on, we think attention is needed in this area.
This week’s crustal movement: Tohoku■M5: Inland Fukushima (seismic intensity 4)
■M4: Offshore Iwate – Offshore Miyagi (seismic intensity 3), Miyagi – Offshore Fukushima (seismic intensity 2)
Since Feb.4, “small scale crustal movements are observed in multiple points” around Inland Fukushima. With “Nihonmatu, Fukushima” in the center, opening-up like crustal movements in “NW & SE” directions are seen in the surrounding areas in today’s latest data (Feb.6), and from the effect of the trench type earthquakes frequently occurring in Offshore Fukushima, there is a possibility of a fault type earthquake in Inland Fukushima. Please stay alert.
Also, in the Pacific side of the Tohoku Region, earthquakes continue to occur frequently in “Northern Offshore Iwate, Off Oshika Peninsula of Miyagi, Offshore Fukushima”. “M4 class” is predicted again this week in these 3 areas.
*If earthquakes occur frequently in the outerrise, “M6 class earthquake” is also predicted.
This week’s crustal movement: KANTO/HOKURIKU/TOKAI■M5: Tochigi area (seismic intensity 5 lower) *4 weeks later
■M5: Ibaraki – Offshore Chiba (seismic intensity 3)
Multiple “micro earthquakes” (28times/week) around “Ashio, Tochigi” area. 4 weeks prior to the M6.6 in Central Tottori on Oct.21 of the previous year, micro earthquakes like this were seen (184times/week). Also, 4 weeks prior to the “Sep.3, 2014, Northern Tochigi, seismic intensity 5 lower, M5.1, hypocentral depth10km” quake, similar micro earthquakes were also observed (48times/week).
At the present time, small scale crustal movement is only observed in “Ashio” and the possibility of this leading to an immediate major earthquake is low, but “M5 class, max seismic intensity 5 lower” level earthquake is predicted to occur within the following 4 weeks in the Tochigi area. Please stay alert.
This week’s crustal movement: KANSAI/CHUGOKU/SHIKOKU■No large crustal movement seen prior to a major earthquake observed.
The crustal movement values observed in Shikoku are low, and because they are not facing the Nankai Trough, they will unlikely lead to the Great Nankai Trough Earthquake. Also, the small scale crustal movements in “Higashiiyayama-A, Naka” is likely effected by the “Jan.28, Northern Tokushima, M3.9, hypocentral depth 45km” quake, and the possibility of a major earthquake occurrence is low.
At the prefectural boundary of Northern Osaka and Hyogo, compared to last week, the earthquake scale is increasing (M1→M2) and the numbers are also increasing. We will keep close watch over increase of earthquakes and crustal movement values in this area.
This week’s crustal movement: KYUSHU■No large crustal movement seen prior to a major earthquake observed.
Large crustal movements were not observed the Kyushu area.
M3-3.4 level earthquakes occurring at the boundary area of the Yangtze and Okinawa Plates. Because a strong “Nov.14, 2015, M7.1, max seismic intensity 4” quake has occurred in this epicenter area, and 5 months later, the “2016 Kumamoto Earthquake” occurred, we will keep close watch of future earthquake activity.
Also, micro earthquakes are occurring along the active fault zone from “NE to SW Kumamoto”. If earthquakes occur more frequently in the Yangtze Plate, or micro earthquakes occur more frequently in Kumamoto, the activation may possibility cause another “max seismic intensity 4 or more” quake in Kumamoto.
This week’s crustal movement: OKINAWA■No large crustal movement seen prior to a major earthquake observed.
Large crustal movements were not observed from Satsunan Islands to Okinawa Islands.
Therefore, earthquakes over “seismic intensity 4” to occur is unlikely.
Around the boundary of the “Yangtze Plate” and the “Okinawa Plate”, M3-4 level earthquakes are occurring frequently. The possibility of an immediate “major earthquake causing tsunami” to occur is low since the earthquakes have fairly shallow hypocenters.
Also, around M4 earthquake occurred again in Taiwan waters last week. This earthquake activity has continued for more than 3 months.
Earthquake prediction research center(EPRC)