Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
【Delivery Date: Jan. 23, 2017 】
Prediction analysis of earthquakes M4 or more to occur by Jan. 31, 2017

【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center(Representative director:Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita)
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo , ZIP105-0022 TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132


Predicted epicenters of earthquakes with a seismic intensity 4 or more by Jan.31

20170123_03 [Latest crustal movement]
– M4-5 level earthquakes frequently occurring from Offshore Urakawa of Hokkaido through Offshore Ibaraki.
– Concentrated large crustal movements observed from inland through Japan Sea side of the Tohoku Region.
– Large crustal movements observed around the Itoigawa Shizuoka Tectonic Line Fault.
– M5 class in Southern off Taiwan, Mariana Plate.

[Predicted epicenters of earthquakes with a seismic intensity 4 or more by Jan.31]
■M5: Offshore Iwate (seismic intensity 4)
■M5: Offshore Fukushima – Northern Ibaraki (seismic intensity 5)
*Details in the following pages.


This week’s crustal movement: Hokkaido

20170123_07 ■M5: M5: Offshore Urakawa (seismic intensity 3), Eastern offshore of Hokkaido (-)

This week, excluding the “Kikonai 1.4cm”, large crustal movements were not observed in Hokkaido but because earthquake activity in “Offshore Urakawa – Eastern offshore of Aomori” is increasing, and the scale is also increasing, as in “Jan.18 M3.8→ Jan.22 M4.6”, there is a possibility of M5 class in “Offshore Urakawa – Eastern offshore of Aomori” area. However, since the crustal movement value of “S Urakawa” is 0.87cm, the possibility of a greater M6 or more earthquake to occur is low. Also, because earthquakes are occurring more frequently in eastern offshore of Hokkaido, M5 class earthquake is predicted.



This week’s crustal movement: Tohoku

20170123_08 ■M5: Offshore Iwate (seismic intensity 4), Offshore Fukushima – Northern Ibaraki, Offshore Ibaraki (seismic intensity 5)
■M4: Niigata (seismic intensity 2)

Large crustal movements observed for the duration of 2 weeks from inland through the Japan Sea side of the Tohoku Region. However, the effect from the noise caused by “heavy snowfall” can be presumed and an immediate major earthquake occurrence is unlikely. M4-5 class earthquakes with shallow focus (earthquakes shown in red circles: hypocentral depth within 30km)” are occurring more frequently in “Offshore Urakawa of Hokkaido – Offshore Ibaraki” area. If it occurs near the coast, it may register “max seismic intensity 4”. Also, because small scale earthquakes are frequently occurring in “Offshore Fukushima, Northern Ibaraki”, there is a possibility of a “max seismic intensity 5” earthquake around the “prefectural boundary of Fukushima & Ibaraki”. Please stay alert.br>



This week’s crustal movement: KANTO/HOKURIKU/TOKAI

20170123_09 ■M5: Offshore Fukushima – Northern Ibaraki, Offshore Ibaraki (seismic intensity 5)
■M4: Southern Ibaraki – NW Chiba (seismic intensity 3)

Large crustal movements were observed from the “Itoigawa Shizuoka Tectonic Line Fault” to Mt. Fuji area. (Middle scale crustal movements were observed last week around Mt. Fuji). Therefore, there is a possibility of small scale earthquake around the Itoigawa Shizuoka Tectonic Line Fault. Also, M3 class earthquakes are occurring more frequently in “Southern Ibaraki – NW Chiba”, where earthquakes had calmed down for a period of time, and there is a possibility of a M4 class occurrence. (If there is rapid change in the daily crustal movements, possible M5 class) Also, because “micro earthquakes” are becoming more frequent in Northern Ibaraki, and “M3-4” earthquakes are frequently occurring in “Offshore Ibaraki”, we will keep close watch.



This week’s crustal movement: KANSAI/CHUGOKU/SHIKOKU

20170123_10 ■No large crustal movement seen prior to a major earthquake observed.
■Small scale earthquakes: Western Wakayama area, Central Tottori, Far seas of Mie (earthquakes with deep focus)

In the latest week, large crustal movements were not observed. In last week’s report, we mentioned that “M2 class earthquakes are occurring more frequently in Western Wakayama and there is a possibility of a M3-4 small scale earthquake in the area”. Since then, only a shallow focus M3.3 earthquake occurred on Jan.18. This week, although middle scale crustal movements were observed in “Kasumi, Hyogo” and “Kagamino, Okayama”, because large crustal movements were not observed in the surrounding areas of both points, this will unlikely lead to a major earthquake.



This week’s crustal movement: KYUSHU

20170123_11 ■No large crustal movement seen prior to a major earthquake observed.
■M5: Tanegashima – Amami Oshima area (max seismic intensity 3), Goto Islands area (seismic intensity 1)

In the latest week, large crustal movements were not observed. The earthquakes occurring in Inland Kyushu Region are M3 class and the possibility of a major earthquake to occur is low. However, M4 class earthquakes are occurring more frequently at the boundary surface of the “Philippine Sea Plate” and the “Okinawa Plate”. If this frequent occurrence is to continue, the “plate boundary surface” will be effected by this earthquake activity and may possibly lead to a major earthquake occurrence in “Hyuganada – Southern off Amami Oshima” area. We will keep close watch over daily crustal movement and earthquake activity changes.



This week’s crustal movement: OKINAWA

20170123_12 ■M5: Amami Oshima – Okinawa Main Islands (seismic intensity 2)
■M4: Taiwan waters (max seismic intensity 3)

In last week’s report, we mentioned that “the earthquake activity in Taiwan area is increasing. This week, a larger scale M5 class earthquake is predicted”. Since then, “Jan.19, M4.6” and “Jan.20, M5.0” occurred but because they occurred in the far seas, high seismic intensity was not registered. However, because the “Jan.20, M4.4” quake registered “local seismic intensity 3”, caution is needed again this week. M3-4 level earthquakes with shallow focuses are frequently occurring in the 3 areas from Amami Oshima to Taiwan. This trend is likely to continue this week, and especially if an earthquake occurs at the boundary of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Okinawa Plate in the “Amami Oshima, Southern offshore of Okinawa Main Island” waters, tsunami may possibly occur. We will keep close watch.




Earthquake prediction research center(EPRC)


eprc
http://eprc.or.jp/eprc-information