Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
【Delivery Date: Jan. 09, 2017 】
Prediction analysis of earthquakes M4 or more to occur by Jan. 17, 2017

【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center(Representative director:Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita)
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo , ZIP105-0022 TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132


Predicted epicenters of earthquakes with a seismic intensity 4 or more by Jan.17

20170109_02 [Predicted epicenters of earthquakes with a seismic intensity 3 or more by Jan.17]
■M6: Tokachi – Kushiro Region (seismic intensity 4)
■M5: Offshore Fukushima – Offshore Ibaraki (max seismic intensity 4)
■M5: Northern Ibaraki – Offshore Ibaraki (seismic intensity 4)
■M5: Taiwan area (max seismic intensity 5)
  *Details in the following pages.


This week’s crustal movement: Hokkaido

20170109_06 ■M6: Tokachi – Kushiro Region (seismic intensity 4)
■M5: NW offshore of Hokkaido (-), Eastern offshore Hokkaido (-)

Northwestward crustal movement observed again this week in Central Hokkaido. (Crustal movement over 1.7cm in Oketo for 2 consecutive weeks)
The growing sedimentation pressure of the Pacific Plate (northwestward) at the boundary of the Pacific and Okhotsk Plates in Offshore Kushiro is presumed to be causing these observations of northwestward crustal movement in multiple points of Hokkaido. Therefore, the possibility of “M6 class around Jan.10, 2017” which we have been announcing for the 4 weeks to occur, still continues.
Also, because an earthquake with a deep hypocenteral area, “hypocenter depth 222km” quake occurred in western offshore of Hokkaido, and middle scale crustal movement was observed in Otaru, similar scaled earthquake is still predicted.



This week’s crustal movement: Tohoku

20170109_07 ■M5:Offshore Fukushima – Offshore Ibaraki (max seismic intensity 4)
■M5:Offshore Iwate – Offshore Miyagi (max seismic intensity 3)

Earthquake occurrences of the Tohoku Region is concentrated in the following 3 areas. 1) Offshore Miyagi (Jan.6 2017, M4.6, seismic intensity 2), 2) Offshore Fukushima (Jan.5 2017, M5.6, seismic intensity 4), 3) Offshore Ibaraki (*off prefectural boundary of Fukushima & Ibaraki, Jan.5 2017, M5.3, seismic intensity 4). Although earthquake activity is decreasing in these areas, M4-5 class earthquakes are still predicted to occur again this week. Please stay alert. Also, with Inland Fukushima in the center, small scale crustal movements are observed in Yamagata, Tochigi and Gunma. Because the values are small, the possibility of a major earthquake to occur is low but it may observe max seismic intensity 4 or more even in the case of a “M4 class earthquake” because it will occur in the inlands.



This week’s crustal movement: KANTO/HOKURIKU/TOKAI

20170109_08 ■M5: Northern Ibaraki – Offshore Ibaraki (seismic intensity 4)

In the latest week, “prior warnings of a major earthquake” were not observed from Kanto through Tokai Regions. However, in addition to the continuous active earthquake activity from Northern Ibaraki to Offshore Ibaraki, southwestward crustal movement over 1.3cm was observed in “Satomi, Ibaraki”, northeastward crustal movement over 0.9cm in “Kitaibaraki”, and the direction of the crustal movement of the two is opening-up like in the opposite direction from the areas with frequent earthquake occurrences. From this, please stay alert for M5 class earthquakes again this week.
Also, in “Tokyo Bay, Offshore Choshi” where micro earthquakes were frequently occurring at the end of last year, the danger of an immediate M6 class earthquake has decreased because the occurrence numbers are also decreasing.



This week’s crustal movement: KANSAI/CHUGOKU/SHIKOKU

20161226_09 ■No prior warnings of a major earthquake present.

No large crustal movements observed in the latest week.
Also, the only earthquake activity observed were the few around M2 quakes in “Central Tottori, Southeastern Hyogo, Southern Mie”. Therefore, the possibility of an immediate M6 class major earthquake occurrence is low but because prior to the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in Jan.17 1995, frequent M2 class earthquakes were seen in “Southeastern offshore of Hyogo and Offshore Wakayama”, we will keep close watch over daily changes in earthquake activity.



This week’s crustal movement: KYUSHU

20170109_09 ■No prior warnings of a major earthquake present.
■M5: Tanegashima – Amami Oshima area (max seismic intensity 3)

The large crustal movements we have been focusing on in “Iyonada – Hyuganada” area from last year and the frequent micro earthquakes were not observed in the latest week. Therefore, the possibility of a major earthquake in “Iyonada – Hyuganada” have decreased. This is because the hypocentral area has moved further southward and M4-5 class earthquakes are now frequently occurring in “Southern offshore of Tanegashima – Amami Oshima waters”. This earthquake activity is likely to continue this week. We will issue an emergency report if large crustal movements are observed.



This week’s crustal movement: OKINAWA

20170109_11 ■M5: Taiwan area (max seismic intensity 5)
■M5: Amami Oshima – Okinawa Main Island (seismic intensity 2)

Frequent “M3-4 earthquakes”, smaller than the last week’s prediction, were observed in Taiwan waters. However, the “M3.8, hypocenter depth 7km” quake in Southeastern Taiwan on Jan.7 was a shallow focus inland earthquake and observed seismic intensity 4 on the local scale. Although the seismic intensity scale is not equivalent between Japan and Taiwan, 5 earthquakes registering max seismic intensity 4 have occurred since Jan.1, 2017. Occurrences of “earthquakes in the inlands with shallow hypocentral areas” are frequent in Taiwan, and there are past cases with M4 class earthquakes registering “max seismic intensity 5”. We will keep close watch.



Earthquake prediction research center(EPRC)


eprc
http://eprc.or.jp/eprc-information