Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
【Delivery Date: Dec. 26, 2016 】
Prediction analysis of earthquakes M4 or more to occur by Jan.5, 2017

【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center(Representative director:Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita)
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo , ZIP105-0022 TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132


Predicted epicenters of earthquakes with a seismic intensity 3 or more by Jan.5

20161226_02 [Latest crustal movements]
 -Large crustal movements observed in Hokkaido again this week.
[Predicted epicenters of earthquakes with a seismic intensity 3 or more by Jan.5]
 ■M6: Tokachi Region (seismic intensity 5)
 ■M6: Offshore Fukushima – Offshore Ibaraki (seismic intensity 4)
 ■M5: Offshore Iwate – Offshore Miyagi (seismic intensity 3)
 ■M5: Tochigi, Gunma Prefectural Boundary (seismic intensity 3)
 ■M5: Ibaraki – Chiba (seismic intensity 4)
 ■M5: Tochigi, Gunma Prefectural Boundary (seismic intensity 3)
 ■M5: Iyonada – Hyuganada (seismic intensity 3)
 ■M6: Yangtze Plate/Okinawa Plate Boundary (seismic intensity 3 or more)
  *Details in the following pages.


This week’s crustal movement: Hokkaido

20161226_06 ■M6: Tokachi Region (seismic intensity 5)
■M4: Offshore Urakawa (seismic intensity 2)
■M6: Japan Sea Eastern Margin Mobile Belt *Caution until middle of Jan.

For the last two weeks, large crustal movements were observed at multiple points around “Kamishihoro” and large crustal movements were observed in Central Hokkaido again this week. Last week, “12/24/2016 18:40 (JST) Kamikawa Region, M4.2, max SI 1” quake occurred.
However, the Dec.24 quake is presumed to be a foreshock of a predicted major earthquake and there is a possibility of a stronger quake to occur.
Large crustal movements observed 2 weeks ago is similar to data seen 3 weeks prior to the “Feb.2, 2013 Southern Tokachi Region, M6.5, max SI 5 upper” quake.
If the occurrence interval is also similar, the earthquake is predicted around Jan.10, 2017.
Also, because large crustal movements are observed around “Central Hokkaido” and “Tomakomai area” in the latest week, M4-5 class earthquake is predicted in “Offshore Ukarakawa” located at the direction of the movement.



This week’s crustal movement: Tohoku

20161226_07 ■M6: Offshore Fukushima – Offshore Ibaraki (SI 4)
■M6: Japan Sea Eastern Margin Mobile Belt *Caution until middle of Jan.
■M5: Offshore Iwate – Offshore Miyagi (SI 3), Tochigi, Gunma Prefectural Boundary (SI 3)

We mentioned in last week’s report, “1) East side of Higashinaruse, Akita”, “2) Southern Fukushima – Northern Ibaraki”, “3) Tochigi – Gunma Prefectural Boundary”, as areas where frequent micro earthquakes were occurring.
About “1) East side of Higashinaruse, Akita” , the occurrence numbers are decreasing in with “50 times 2 weeks ago → 25 times last week”.
In “2) Southern Fukushima – Northern Ibaraki”, because the occurrence numbers are very similar with “126 times 2 weeks ago → 106 times last week”, M5 class is still predicted.
The numbers of micro earthquakes are rapidly increasing in “3) Tochigi – Gunma Prefectural Boundary” with “64 times 2 weeks ago → 171 times last week” and a fault type M5 class earthquake is predicted in Tochigi – Gunma area.
Please stay alert.



This week’s crustal movement: KANTO/HOKURIKU/TOKAI

20161226_08 ■M5: Sagami Trough (seismic intensity 2), Ibaraki – Chiba (seismic intensity 4), Gifu – Aichi (seismic intensity 2), Tochigi, Gunma Prefectural boundary (seismic intensity 3)

Earthquakes registering around M4 continue to occur from Southern Ibaraki to Central Chiba. A week prior to the “Nov.16, 2013 20:44 (JST) Offshore Ichihara (Tokyo Bay), M5.4, max seismic intensity 4” quake, M4-5 level earthquakes occurred in “Southern Ibaraki, Offshore Choshi, Eastern Offshore of Chiba”.
There is a possibility of a similar scale earthquake to occur. So please stay alert.
Also, shallow focused earthquakes continue to occur frequently around Gifu.



This week’s crustal movement: KANSAI/CHUGOKU/SHIKOKU

20161226_09 ■No prior warnings of a major earthquake present.
■M4: Kyoto (seismic intensity 2)

Last week, crustal movement over 1.2cm was observed in “Mitsugi, Hiroshima” and small scale crustal movements were also observed in “Hirose, Sata, Yasaka, and Masuda of Shimane Pref.” but since it has decreased this week, the possibility of an earthquake in “Shimane – Hiroshima” area has also decreased.
From the number of micro earthquakes in “Central Tottori” (490 times 3 weeks ago, 292 times 2 weeks ago, 362 times last week), the effects of the “Oct.21, 2016, M6.6, SI 6 lower” continue to be present and earthquakes around M3 are likely to occur again this week.
Also, because micro earthquakes occurred 126 times last week around Wakayama, if crustal movement values increase, there is a possibility of a M4-5 class earthquake occurrence.
We will keep close watch. Crustal movement over 1.2cm observed in Kyotonishikyo. We will also continue observation of this area.



This week’s crustal movement: KYUSHU

20161226_10 ■M5: Iyonada – Hyuganada (SI 3)
■M4: Kumamoto area (SI 2), Tokara Islands (SI 2)

Micro earthquakes with shallow epicenters have been frequently occurring in “Iyonada – Hyuganada” and “Kumamoto area” for the last 2 weeks.
* Iyonada – Hyuganada: 69 times 2 weeks ago→69 last week: Kumamoto: 482 times 2 weeks ago→442 last week
The magnitude is also increasing especially in Hyuganada, and since earthquakes are more frequently occurring in “eastern offshore of Tanegashima”, stay alert for a M5 class earthquake until the turn of the year.
(*With a M5 class case, max SI 3 level is predicted since occurrence will be in the far seas)
Also, earthquakes with deep focus (115km, M3.2, etc.) are occurring around focus depth 100-150km.
These earthquakes are presumed to be occurring at the depth of the “boundary surface of the Philippine Plate sedimenting to the Okinawa Plate” and if the earthquake activity of the Kagoshima area becomes active, there is a possibility for the earthquake to occur not in Hyuganada, but in more westward Southern Kagoshima



This week’s crustal movement: OKINAWA

20161226_11 ■M6: Yangtze Plate/Okinawa Plate Boundary (seismic intensity 3 or more)
■M5: Miyako-jima – Taiwan waters (max SI 2), Amami Oshima – Okinawa Main Island (SI 2)

Frequent M3-4 earthquakes in northern offshore of Amami Oshima. (55 times including micro earthquakes last week)
Also, around M4 earthquakes frequently occurring in Miyako-jima – Yonaguni-jima area. (75 times including micro earthquakes last week)
Adding to that, around M3 quakes with shallow focuses are also frequently occurring at the “Yangtze Plate/Okinawa Plate Boundary”.
Stay alert for a M5 class earthquake this week around the Satsunan Islands to the entire Okinawa Islands area since earthquake activity is active.
If large crustal movements are observed, we will issue emergency reports even during the New Year’s holidays.



Earthquake prediction research center(EPRC)


eprc
http://eprc.or.jp/eprc-information