Earthquake Prediction Analysis Report
【Delivery Date: Dec. 12, 2016 】
Prediction analysis of Earthquakes M4 or more to occur by Dec. 20, 2016

【Data analysis 】
Earthquake prediction research center (Representative director:Onoe Masataka , Analysis Center Director Shigeyoshi Yagishita)
MK building, 1-4-12 kaigan, Minato-ku Tokyo , ZIP105-0022 TEL 03-6627-0528 FAX: 03-3436-3132


Predicted epicenters of earthquakes with a seismic intensity 3 or more by Dec. 20

20161212-02 ■M6: Tokachi Reigon (seismic intensity 5)
■M5: Offshore Fukushima – Offshore Ibaraki (seismic intensity 3)
■M4: Tochigi/Northern Gunma (seismic intensity 3)
■M4: Nagano – Gifu (seismic intensity 3)
■M5: Iyonada – Hyuganada (seismic intensity 3)
■M4: Kumamoto area (seismic intensity 3)
■M6: Yangtze Plate/Okinawa Plate boundary (seismic intensity 4 or more)
   *Caution until beginning of Feb.
■M5: Miyako-jima – Yonaguni-jima (max seismic intensity 3)
■M6: Suruga Trough area (seismic intensity 3)


This week’s crustal movement: Hokkaido

20161212-06 ■M6: Japan Sea Eastern Margin Mobile Belt (NW off of Hokkaido – Niigata) *Caution until middle of Jan.
■M6: Tokachi Reigon (seismic intensity 5) *Within 3 weeks
This week, very large crustal movements are observed in Inland Hokkaido.
In the past, after large crustal movements were observed in multiple points around Kamishihoro, a large earthquake “Feb.2, 2013 Southern Tokachi Region, M6.5, max seismic intensity 5 upper” has occurred. Last week, 48 micro earthquakes were observed “around Kamishihoro”.
Prior to “Oct. 21, 2016 M6.2, max seismic intensity 6 lower” quake in Central Tottori Pref., similar magnitude 1 or more earthquakes were observed “66 times/week, 3 weeks ago”. From this, please stay alert for the following 3 weeks in the Kamishihoro area.


This week’s crustal movement: Tohoku

20161212-07
■M6: Japan Sea Eastern Margin Mobile Belt (NW off of Hokkaido – Niigata) *Caution until mid of Jan.
■M5: Offshore Fukushima – Offshore Ibaraki (SI 3), Iwate – Offshore Miyagi (SI 2)
Last week, small scale crustal movements were observed in multiple points from Akita to Iwate. As a result, “Dec.10 (Sat) 13:44 (JST), M4.8, max seismic intensity 3” quake in Offshore Iwate and “Dec.8 (Thurs) 17:15 (JST), M5.0, max seismic intensity 3” quake occurred in Offshore Fukushima. This week, although large crustal movements are not observed in the entire Tohoku area, because micro earthquakes continue to occur frequently on the Pacific coast and in the inlands, this is presumed to be a prior warning to a future M5 or more. Stay alert for M4 class earthquake in “Southern Fukushima – Northern Ibaraki”, “Tochigi, Northern Gunma” and “Hiraizumi” area where frequent micro earthquakes are occurring. There is a possibility of a stronger M5 class after the occurrence of a M4 quake.


This week’s crustal movement: KANTO/HOKURIKU/TOKAI

20161212-08
■M5: Northern Ibaraki (SI 4), Offshore Fukushima – Offshore Ibaraki (SI 3)
■M4: Tochigi/Northern Gunma (SI 3), Offshore Chiba (SI 2), Nagano – Gifu (SI 3)
Resulting from the middle scale crustal movements observed in “Fujihashi & Nannou, Gifu Pref.” last week, “Dec.6 (Tues) 9:05 (JST), M4.5, Hida Region, Gifu Pref., max seismic intensity 3” quake occurred. During the recent month, we have been concerned about the occurrence of a “M5 class earthquake” caused by the frequent occurrences of micro earthquakes and small scale crustal movements around the “Itoigawa Shizuoka Tectonic Line”. The possibility of an earthquake occurrence around the “Itoigawa Shizuoka Tectonic Line” has not decreased by this Dec.6 quake since shallow focused micro earthquake occurrences from last week continues to occur in the latest week in “Nagano – Gifu prefectural border”, “Northern Ibaraki” and “Tochigi – Gunma prefectural border”. Caution towards middle scale earthquake is still needed.


This week’s crustal movement: KANSAI/CHUGOKU/SHIKOKU

20161212-09
■M5: Iyonada – Hyuganada (SI 3) *Caution until end of Dec.
■M4: Kyoto (SI 2), Offshore Wakayama (SI 2), Central Tottori (SI 2)
This week, micro earthquakes continues to occur in “Kyoto”, “Offshore Wakayama” and “Tottori”. However, since large crustal movement was not observed in the latest week, the possibility of an earthquake larger than “max seismic intensity 3” to occur is low.
The possibility of an immediate major earthquake occurrence is low since the number of locations observing “small scale crustal movements” are decreasing in Southern Kii Peninsula. Also, because crustal movements facing the Nankai Trough direction are not observed in Shikoku and Wakayama, the possibility of an immediate occurrence of the Great Nankai Trough Earthquake is low this week but change may come rapidly. We will keep close watch over daily movements.


This week’s crustal movement: KYUSHU

20161212-10
■M5: Iyonada – Hyuganada (SI 3) *Caution until end of Dec.
■M4: Kumamoto area (SI 3), Tokara Islands (SI 2)
Shallow focused “micro earthquakes” concentrated in “Iyonada – Hyuganada” and “Kumamoto area” continue to occur again this week but because of the decrease in the number of occurrences and the fact that large crustal movements are not observed around Iyonada, we presume the possibility of a major earthquake is small and have lowered one level the degree of “magnitude, seismic intensity” this week. Also, because small scale earthquakes accompanying magma belch undersea is frequently occurring in the “Tokara Islands” located at the boundary surface of the “Amur, Yangtze and Okinawa Plates”, this may lead to a M6 class earthquake occurrence with strong tremors. For the recent reference case, in the beginning of Sept, 2 months prior to the “11/14/2015 5:51 (JST), W offshore Satsuma Peninsula, M7.1, max SI 4” quake, small scale earthquakes were frequently occurring in the Tokara Islands area. We will keep close watch over future changes.


This week’s crustal movement: OKINAWA

20161212-11
■M6: Yangtze Plate/Okinawa Plate boundary (seismic intensity 4 or more) *Caution until beginning of Feb.
■M5: Miyako-jima – Yonaguni-jima (max seismic intensity 3), Amami Oshima (seismic intensity 2)
Last week, “frequent micro earthquakes” were seen at the “boundary of Yangtze and Okinawa Plates”. The area observing frequent occurrences have moved away from the plate boundary to “Miyako-jima – Yonaguni-jima” area in the latest week.
Therefore, M5 class earthquake is predicted in “Miyako-jima – Yonaguni-jima” waters this week. Please stay alert.
Also, because small scale earthquakes are frequently occurring in “Northern offshore of Amami Oshima”, the possibility of a M5 class earthquake in these waters is high. Please stay alert.


This week’s crustal movement: ISLANDS


20161212-12
■M6: Suruga Trough area (seismic intensity 3) *Caution until middle of Jan.
■M4: Iwo Jima waters (seismic intensity -)
Last week, frequent “deep focused earthquakes” where observed in the Ogasawara Trench area where “the Pacific Plate sinks below the Philippine Sea Plate”.
Also, under M4 “deep focus earthquakes” are frequently occurring in “Suruga Trough” area located at “the boundary of the Amur and Philippine Sea Plates”.
Effected by this, “Dec.9, Southern Mie Pref., M3.5, max seismic intensity1” quake occurred.
From the accumulated pressure from the Philippine Sea Plate, the possibility of a M6 class in the Suruga Trough is growing high and attention is required until the middle of Jan.
However, it will likely be a “max seismic intensity 5” level if the epicenter is shallow but if it is a deep focus quake, it will only be “max seismic intensity 3” level even if a M6 occurs.


Earthquake prediction research center(EPRC)


eprc
http://eprc.or.jp/eprc-information